The statement came on Thursday after a research-based institution, the Center for Policy Research and Strategic Studies (CePRASS), released the results of its latest opinion poll, in the lead up to the 2026 presidential election.
However, the country’s largest opposition party stated that it has taken note of the survey and results, promising to carefully review it, and use its insights to further strengthen their campaign, sharpen their messaging, and deepen their connection with voters across the country.
“As a party that values evidence-based engagement, the UDP will carefully review the findings of the survey and use its insights to further strengthen our campaign, sharpen our messaging, and deepen our connection with voters across the country.”
The party insists that elections are decided at polling stations, not by projections or survey results. “At the same time, we wish to emphasize an important democratic truth, opinion polls do not determine election outcomes, voters do. Elections are decided at polling stations, by citizens exercising their constitutional right, not by projections or survey results.”
The party added, “Recent history provides clear and instructive examples. In Malawi’s 2020 presidential election, nearly all opinion polls predicted the defeat of opposition leader Dr. Lazarus Chakwera. Yet the people spoke at the ballot box, and he won decisively. Similarly, in Zambia in 2021, opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema secured a landslide victory despite prevailing polls and narratives suggesting otherwise. Across Africa and beyond, political history consistently reminds us that polls can underestimate grassroots momentum, misread public sentiment, or fail to capture late shifts in voter behavior.”
According to the CePRASS newly-released opinion poll that was conducted in late 2025, the National People’s Party (NPP) leads with 46%, while the opposition UDP followed with 20%, giving an incumbent the upper hands.
With less than a year to the 2026 Presidential Elections, experts say CePRASS opinion ought not to be ignored, for it has conducted a similar poll shortly before the 2021 Presidential Election, where President Adama Barrow emerged victorious.
President Barrow came into office in 2016 following the defeat of former President Yahya Jammeh. He is currently seeking the mandate of Gambians to for a third term.
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