By Salifu Manneh
Revisiting the Numbers: Can We Trust What We See?
The 2021 presidential election in The Gambia saw an extraordinary voter turnout of 89%, up from just 59% in 2016—a 30-point increase almost unprecedented in modern democratic history.
What does this surge mean? Can we trust the numbers?
And what do they tell us about the strength and future of the opposition heading into 2026?
One would have thought that excitement about eliminating the dictatorship would attract a better voter turnout in 2016 than in 2021. Could the missed opportunity to hear the UDP petition in the Supreme Court have given us more insight into what happened in the 2021 election preparations, elections, and results?
Comparative Analysis: 2016 vs 2021 Presidential Elections
2016 Election Overview
Very close total of votes for Barrow vs. Jammeh:
• Winner: Adama Barrow (Coalition 2016) – 227,708 votes (43.3%)
• Main rival: Yahya Jammeh (APRC) – 208,487 votes (39.6%)
• Third place: Mama Kandeh (GDC) – 89,768 votes (17.1%)
• Voter Turnout: ~59%
• Context: Historic transition that ended 22 years of authoritarian rule
Key Factors:
• United opposition under Coalition 2016
• Strong urban youth and diaspora engagement
• Widespread discontent with Jammeh’s rule
2021 Election Overview
• Winner: Adama Barrow (NPP) – 457,159 votes (53.2%)
• Main rival: Ousainou Darboe (UDP) – 238,253 votes (27.7%)
• Third place: Mama Kandeh (GDC + APRC faction) – 105,902 votes (12.3%)
• Halifa Sallah 32,425 3.37%
• Essa M Faal 17,206 1.79%
• Abdoulie Ebrima Jammeh 8252 0.86%
• Voter Turnout: ~89%
• Context: Barrow’s consolidation of power under a new party, the NPP
Key Factors:
Incumbency advantage
• Fragmented opposition
• Alliance with the APRC faction
• Enhanced voter mobilisation
Key Differences at a Glance
Feature 2016 2021
Opposition Unity Strong (Coalition 2016), Fragmented (UDP, GDC/APRC, PDOIS)
Barrow’s Base Reformist outsider Incumbent with state resources
APRC role opposition ally (FTJ-led faction)
Voter turnout ~59% ~89%
Political landscape transitional, anti-Jammeh Status quo advantage!
Who has the best shot in 2026?
As of 2025, The Gambia has over two dozen registered political parties, with the number continuing to grow as new entrants like the Alliance for Democracy and Development (ADD) join the political landscape.
This expansion reflects the country’s increasingly pluralistic democracy since the end of authoritarian rule in 2017. While not all parties have significant national influence, the diversity of voices is notable. Some of the more prominent parties include:
• National People’s Party (NPP)
• United Democratic Party (UDP)
• Gambia Democratic Congress (GDC)
• People’s Democratic Organisation for Independence and Socialism (PDOIS)
• Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC)
• Citizens’ Alliance (CA)
• Gambia Moral Congress (GMC)
• National Reconciliation Party (NRP)
1. United Democratic Party (UDP)
Strengths:
• Largest opposition party (27.7% in 2021)
• Urban strongholds (Kanifing, West Coast)?
• Legacy, loyal grassroots
Weaknesses: Needs to be more vocal about daily living issues affecting the population week in and week out.
• Struggles in rural areas but continues to make some progress
• Risk of internal power struggles
My views: Outlook: Viable, but needs renewal and youth appeal.
The United Democratic Party (UDP) must demonstrate leadership by opening its doors to other opposition parties, fostering an open and transparent dialogue, and taking bold steps toward including members of these parties in a prospective cabinet. This spirit of inclusivity is essential for promoting national unity and driving the country forward. Given its influential position, the UDP is responsible for accommodating the interests and aspirations of other political actors to present a united front capable of ushering in a new political era beyond the Barrow administration.
2. GDC–APRC Alliance (Mama Kandeh)
Strengths:
• Rural support in URR and parts of CRR|
• Backing of APRC loyalists
Weaknesses:
• Alliance with APRC eroded reformist image
• Weak urban presence
Outlook: Needs reinvention and broader appeal.
3. PDOIS (Halifa Sallah)
Strengths:
• Principled and consistent platform
Weaknesses:
• Limited electoral traction
• Small support base
Outlook: Needs coalition strategy or youth-oriented rebranding.
Electoral map comparison
2016
• Barrow won: Banjul, Kanifing, Lower River, Upper River
• Jammeh won: West Coast, Central River
• Kandeh is strong in: North Bank
2021
• Barrow swept all six regions
• UDP remained strongest in urban areas
• GDC retained some rural support in URR and parts of CRR.
Key insights!
1. Barrow Broadened Appeal: It expanded from the urban-rural fringe in 2016 to traditional APRC zones by 2021.
2. Opposition Fragmentation. Unlike in 2016, opposition parties were disunited in 2021.
3. Strategic Challenge for 2026: Unity between UDP and GDC (with or without PDOIS) is critical to challenge NPP.
Regional vote share – 2016 snapshot
Region Barrow (%) Jammeh (%) Kandeh (%)
Banjul 49.7 42.7 7.7
Kanifing 50.1 40.0 9.9′
West Coast 43.2 44.4 12.5
North Bank 36.7 28.8 34.6
Lower River 55.8 27.1 17.1
Central River 31.7 43.2 25.1
Upper River 44.0 38.3 17.7
The unanswered questions
Key questions on electoral integrity in The Gambia
1. What explains the dramatic increase in voter turnout between 2016 and 2021? Was it genuine enthusiasm, or were there deeper systemic issues?
2. Why did the Supreme Court dismiss the UDP’s election petition? Was justice served, or was it lost in procedural technicalities?
3. Were there ghost votes, ghost voters, or ghost polling stations? Without complete transparency, how can these suspicions be dispelled?
4. Why doesn’t the 2021 turnout align with census projections? Is there a disconnect between the voter register and the actual population?
5. Should the IEC publish the full electoral register for every village? Wouldn’t this ensure public confidence and allow verification?
6. How can stakeholders unite to prevent voter fraud and rigging in 2026? What role should civil society, political parties, and citizens play?
7. Final Thoughts: The Gambia’s turnout jump is one of the most dramatic in democratic history—maybe not necessarily fraudulent, but deeply worthy of scrutiny. With 2026 looming, the key to a democratic breakthrough is opposition unity, a clear national policy vision, and genuine transparency from electoral authorities. Can we trust our numbers? Can we trust our process? The time to answer is now.
