Nigerians in several parts of the country should brace for an unusual start to the 2025 rainy season, with early rainfall predicted for Lagos, Ogun, Delta, Rivers, and nine other states, according to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).
The agency made this known during the official unveiling of its 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) on Sunday in Abuja.
Presenting the SCP, Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo (SAN), emphasized the significance of the climate outlook for national planning, particularly for agriculture, disaster preparedness, and public health. “Timely climate predictions will enable farmers to optimize farming schedules and improve the nation’s food system security,” he said.
According to the report, early rainfall is expected over coastal and southern states including Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, Edo, Enugu, and parts of Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, and Imo. Rainfall is forecast to begin as early as February 23 through March 10 in some coastal areas. Meanwhile, a delayed onset is expected in central and northern states such as Plateau, Kaduna, Benue, and Adamawa.
NiMet warned of potentially intense rainfall in the May–June period that could trigger flash floods in coastal cities. Overall, the country should expect normal to below-normal annual rainfall compared to the long-term average, although some areas, including parts of Kebbi, Ebonyi, Lagos, and the FCT, may experience above-average rainfall.
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The 2025 season, however, comes with complex patterns. For example, while some parts of Kaduna, Nasarawa, Taraba, and Ogun will see a delayed end to the rains, regions like Zamfara, Jigawa, and Yobe are predicted to experience earlier cessation. Lagos and Nasarawa may experience a longer-than-usual rainy season, while Borno and parts of Yobe could see a shorter one.
Farmers and agricultural planners are being urged to pay close attention to these forecasts, especially in light of predicted dry spells. In April through June, parts of Oyo State may experience up to 15 consecutive dry days. The northern states could face even more severe conditions, with dry spells extending up to 21 days between June and August.
Keyamo also flagged the expected “August Break” a short dry period within the rainy season, noting it will be particularly severe in Lagos and Ogun, with little to no rainfall for 27 to 40 days. Mild to moderate versions of the break are expected in Ekiti, Oyo, and Ondo states.
The SCP also projects that most parts of Nigeria will experience higher-than-normal temperatures from February through May. “Both daytime and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be warmer than the long-term average, particularly in January, February, March, and May,” said Keyamo. In contrast, April may offer a temporary cooling period.
Director General of NiMet, Professor Charles Anosike, emphasized the importance of timely use of the SCP. “Climate predictions are perishable. They require active collaboration from users who will implement, evaluate, and offer feedback,” he said.
Echoing that sentiment, Director General of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), Zubaida Umar, highlighted the value of climate forecasts in disaster risk reduction. “Without NiMet’s early warnings, the annual floods that ravage Nigeria could have been far more devastating,” she stated.
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